Polish used market · reference year 2026

How fast a
vehicle bleeds value

Cross-sectional depreciation curves by engine class, read off private-seller listings and smoothed with weighted isotonic regression.

45,340valid bikes
58%have model year
53%engine size
—engine classes

Figure 01

Price against age

Faint dots are raw medians per (class, age) cell; the solid line is the monotone isotonic fit. Bigger engines sit higher and shed more value.

Figure 02

Value retained

Each class indexed to 100% at its youngest tracked cohort — the lower a line falls, the faster that class loses value.

The read

Summary & buy timing

"Buy from" marks the first age where annual value loss drops below 8% of the near-new price — past the cliff the first owner paid.

Where registration data plugs in

  • Survivorship. Old bikes still listed are the well-kept survivors; CEPiK de-registrations per cohort give a survival fraction to discount the tail.
  • Sample bias. Sellers over-list newer bikes; CEPiK first-registration volumes re-weight the medians toward true cohort sizes.

By engine class

Class breakdowns

By model

Model-level curves

The precise tier — depreciation for a single make + model, where there's enough data. Includes dealer listings for coverage, so read the shape (how much value it keeps), not the absolute złoty.